Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Where we're going?

Overnight MosPrime rate in roubles is at 7.67% today but was at 21% at Monday, according to Centrobank.

I think it was due to "weekend hangover" effect. The dollar began to rally after the Reuters article was misinterpreted by local media as "limits will be introduced on currency purchases".

MOSCOW, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Russia will introduce daily limits on currency swap operations starting Oct. 20, the central bank said in a statement on Friday.

On Monday, people rushed to currency exchange bureaus to get dollars. The rate was as high as 30 roubles per US dollar (official rate of Centrobank was like 26.2ish). The things cooled down at Monday evening, however, the official rate USD/RUR began to rise. So the 21% interbank overnight rate was due to fear of something bad beginning to develop (i.e. rapid rouble devalvation).

Meanwhile, the global outlook gradually becoming somewhat less ugly (VIX at 50ish instead of 70ish, 3mo LIBOR at 3.5ish% and going down, TED spread going down also). The stock markets are beaten, but who cares? The credit market situation is the thing that matters.

Concerning the Russia, the situation is different. I'll post my thoughts when i'll get some spare time.

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